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LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
Franklin, Venango Regional Airport

Temperature       0 F / 0 C
Wind Chill        0 F / 0 C
Dew Point         0 F / 0 C
Humidity          0%
Wind Speed        9.2
Wind Direction    NW 320 Degrees Varying 290 to 10
Visibility        10 Miles
Sky Conditions     few at 3800 feet
Current Weather
Barometer         30.07 Inches
Issued At         07/25/2025 16:56

$$


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Untitled Document
FXUS61 KPBZ 252007
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and
stalls across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances then
continue through Sunday as the front drifts across the area.
With a stalled front expected to linger in the long-range, a
chance for rain will persist through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Gusty wind possible in storms this afternoon.
- Chance for patchy fog in the morning.
---------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough associated with a surface cold front, will track
from the Great Lakes region toward the Upper Ohio Valley region
today. The boundary is expected to progress slowly to the southeast
since flow aloft is parallel with the surface front. Showers/storms
will continue to increase in coverage with the approach of the wave
and surface front.

Afternoon ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg near PIT with lower values to the
north and higher values to the south. Mid level flow does increase
some, resulting in 30kt of 0-6km shear. This could result in some
gusty wind with storms that become organized. PWATs currently range
between 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which is likely to result in locally
heavy rain potential. The flow will be sufficient to keep storms
moving, though any training could result in a localized flash flood
potential. Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue
outside of any thunderstorms, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90
for much of the area.

Tonight, chance for showers will decrease as diurnal instability
weakens. However, elevated instability and the crossing disturbances
will keep a few isolated showers and storms in the forecast
overnight. With light and variable wind combined with moisture from
recent rainfall, there is a chance for patchy fog in the morning in
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday.
- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible.
----------------------------------------------------------------

The flow aloft remains westerly on Saturday, ahead of another
approaching shortwave trough. This should push the surface front
back north as a warm front through the day. ML CAPE is progged to
range from 1500-2000 J/kg for much of the area, with PWATS 1.8 - 2.0
inches. Shear is expected to be similar to today (25-30 knots) as
well. In general, the same pattern continues tomorrow with a locally
heavy rain/flash flood potential, with some gusty wind possible in
more organized storms. There is a slight chance for flooding (2/4
risk) with the storms tomorrow. With the high quantity of moisture,
any training along the boundary tomorrow could produce high rain
rates, increasing the potential for flooding.

The shortwave will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region on Sunday,
with additional showers and storms. The flow is progged to veer to
the NW after its passage, which will drive the front south.
Expect showers/storms to end Sunday night as the front exits and
dissipates.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot weather continues through mid week.
- Occasional shower/thunderstorm chances each day.
- Cooler and less humid by late week into the weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Models indicate an upper high will be centered across the
Plains/MS Valley region early in the week. The Upper Ohio Valley
region is forecast to be on the NE periphery of the high, with
general NW flow aloft. Shortwaves embedded in this flow will
likely result in occasional shower and thunderstorm chances
through mid- week as they cross the Upper Ohio Valley region.

The high is expected to weaken as it retrogrades westward by mid to
late week, with the northern CONUS in a more amplified flow and a
trough over the NE CONUS. A shortwave rotating through the main
trough should result in shower and thunderstorm chances again on
Thursday.

Hot and humid weather is expected to continue through midweek, until
the trough sets up across the NE CONUS. This should result in cooler
and less humid weather returning to the region late week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorm coverage has increased on the gradient of highest
instability from about ZZV-PIT-IDI. Have attempted to cover any
impact to the terminals with a combination of PROB30s and
TEMPOs through the afternoon. Brief degradation to low MVFR/IFR
is anticipated in any passing storm. A few gusts exceeding
35kts are possible but confidence in impact at any terminal is
not high enough for inclusion at this time.

Coverage should diminish after sunset but some of the hi res
models do keep some precip lingering in the vicinity of the
stalled boundary. At this time won't mention the coverage as the
bigger concern will be any fog development, particularly where
the front stalls and moisture pools at the surface.

Outlook... The front will stall across the area into the
weekend maintaining daily precipitation and restriction chances
peaking each afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM/Lupo
NEAR TERM...WM/Lupo
SHORT TERM...WM/Lupo
LONG TERM...WM/Lupo
AVIATION...34