LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 0 F / 0 C Wind Chill 0 F / 0 C Dew Point 0 F / 0 C Humidity 0% Wind Speed 9.2 Wind Direction NW 320 Degrees Varying 290 to 10 Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 3800 feet Current Weather Barometer 30.07 Inches Issued At 07/25/2025 16:56 $$ |
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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 252007 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 407 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and stalls across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances then continue through Sunday as the front drifts across the area. With a stalled front expected to linger in the long-range, a chance for rain will persist through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Locally heavy rainfall possible. - Gusty wind possible in storms this afternoon. - Chance for patchy fog in the morning. --------------------------------------------------------------- A shortwave trough associated with a surface cold front, will track from the Great Lakes region toward the Upper Ohio Valley region today. The boundary is expected to progress slowly to the southeast since flow aloft is parallel with the surface front. Showers/storms will continue to increase in coverage with the approach of the wave and surface front. Afternoon ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg near PIT with lower values to the north and higher values to the south. Mid level flow does increase some, resulting in 30kt of 0-6km shear. This could result in some gusty wind with storms that become organized. PWATs currently range between 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which is likely to result in locally heavy rain potential. The flow will be sufficient to keep storms moving, though any training could result in a localized flash flood potential. Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue outside of any thunderstorms, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 for much of the area. Tonight, chance for showers will decrease as diurnal instability weakens. However, elevated instability and the crossing disturbances will keep a few isolated showers and storms in the forecast overnight. With light and variable wind combined with moisture from recent rainfall, there is a chance for patchy fog in the morning in areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Occasional showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday. - Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The flow aloft remains westerly on Saturday, ahead of another approaching shortwave trough. This should push the surface front back north as a warm front through the day. ML CAPE is progged to range from 1500-2000 J/kg for much of the area, with PWATS 1.8 - 2.0 inches. Shear is expected to be similar to today (25-30 knots) as well. In general, the same pattern continues tomorrow with a locally heavy rain/flash flood potential, with some gusty wind possible in more organized storms. There is a slight chance for flooding (2/4 risk) with the storms tomorrow. With the high quantity of moisture, any training along the boundary tomorrow could produce high rain rates, increasing the potential for flooding. The shortwave will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region on Sunday, with additional showers and storms. The flow is progged to veer to the NW after its passage, which will drive the front south. Expect showers/storms to end Sunday night as the front exits and dissipates. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot weather continues through mid week. - Occasional shower/thunderstorm chances each day. - Cooler and less humid by late week into the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Models indicate an upper high will be centered across the Plains/MS Valley region early in the week. The Upper Ohio Valley region is forecast to be on the NE periphery of the high, with general NW flow aloft. Shortwaves embedded in this flow will likely result in occasional shower and thunderstorm chances through mid- week as they cross the Upper Ohio Valley region. The high is expected to weaken as it retrogrades westward by mid to late week, with the northern CONUS in a more amplified flow and a trough over the NE CONUS. A shortwave rotating through the main trough should result in shower and thunderstorm chances again on Thursday. Hot and humid weather is expected to continue through midweek, until the trough sets up across the NE CONUS. This should result in cooler and less humid weather returning to the region late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Thunderstorm coverage has increased on the gradient of highest instability from about ZZV-PIT-IDI. Have attempted to cover any impact to the terminals with a combination of PROB30s and TEMPOs through the afternoon. Brief degradation to low MVFR/IFR is anticipated in any passing storm. A few gusts exceeding 35kts are possible but confidence in impact at any terminal is not high enough for inclusion at this time. Coverage should diminish after sunset but some of the hi res models do keep some precip lingering in the vicinity of the stalled boundary. At this time won't mention the coverage as the bigger concern will be any fog development, particularly where the front stalls and moisture pools at the surface. Outlook... The front will stall across the area into the weekend maintaining daily precipitation and restriction chances peaking each afternoon. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM/Lupo NEAR TERM...WM/Lupo SHORT TERM...WM/Lupo LONG TERM...WM/Lupo AVIATION...34 |