LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 57.2 F / 14 C Dew Point 41 F / 5 C Humidity 55% Wind Speed 10.4 Wind Direction W 270 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions broken at 4600 feet Current Weather Barometer 29.84 Inches Issued At 06/01/2025 12:56 $$ |
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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011228 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 828 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with temperatures rising to above normal through early next week. The next rain chances arrive late Wednesday into early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry day with rebounding temperatures. - Smoke expected aloft. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Update this morning focused on lowering dewpoints towards the lower end of NBM guidance, towards the 5th/10th percentile, as the 12Z sounding shows good potential for the mixdown of drier air just off the surface later this morning. Also, lowered temperatures slightly through the day due to the impact of smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires, the concentration of which is forecast to increase according to HRRR smoke products. Increased sky cover to no lower than 30 percent across the board to account for the impact to sky visibility, but will hold off on haze mention for now. Also, only made this increase for today; we will need to assess the need for future periods. Previous discussion... Upper troughing will begin to pull off to the east today giving way to rising heights around +10 dam by this evening as ridging builds from the west. Today will be day one of a temperature rebound with plenty of sun and a well-mixed boundary layer likely promoting a slight dip in afternoon dew points and a coincident bump up in temperatures. The only caveat to this could be increasing smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires muting heating by a degree or two; HRRR/RAP smoke products suggest a period of increased concentration in mid to upper level northwest flow from the mid-morning into the early evening hours. So, while cloud coverage will be scarce, the sky will have a hazy look to it. Clear skies hold on tonight with wind favored to be calmer than Saturday night as high pressure centers itself closer overhead. With dew points still in the mid 30s, efficient radiating could drop lows down low enough for more frost concerns especially in the sheltered areas/valleys in the WV/PA ridges with increased probability also showing up for those types of locations in Venango, Clarion, Jefferson, and Forest. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures turning 10-15 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday with increased heat risk concern. - Remaining dry through mid-week. ---------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure remains dominant headed into the upcoming work week. The trend through Wednesday will be dry weather with increasing temperatures. A number of ensemble members drag a trailing shortwave through on Monday on the backside of the trough and introduce a low probability chance of a scattered shower or two with a modest increase in cloud coverage. HREF chances for measurable precip are confined north and east of Pittsburgh but remain below 15%. Otherwise, high temperatures will rise back to normal or just above with increasing thickness values and rising heights. The most notable warmth arrives Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface high shifts off to our east and a tighter gradient induces warm, moist advection in southerly flow. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures increase to 15-17C under strong 588 dam ridging and 1380-1390 meter 1000-850 mb thickness values. All of these factors translate to highs in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with the airmass reaching peak modification by Wednesday with prolonged southerly flow. Probability of reaching 85F or higher on Tuesday is generally from 40-70% in the urban areas and southeastern Ohio. Probability for the same on Wednesday jumps to nearly 100% across the board and up to 40- 70% for 90F+. Precipitation chances and total cloud coverage both are rather low on Tuesday but slightly higher on Wednesday as upper level moisture increases from the west. The biggest question will likely be eastern Ohio as a few ensembles inch thicker clouds in a bit earlier. Confidence in temps is highest across western PA at this time, though it is worth noting additionally that the potential for high level smoke could again mute temperatures by a degree or two. Overnight lows will also remain quite mild with low probability that they dip under 60F Tuesday night and especially Wednesday night. Combine these factors with this being the first notable heat of the year, and the Heat Risk levels increase to Moderate on Wednesday and Thursday with heat-related impacts to most individuals who are sensitive to heat. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances return for the latter half of the week with potential for severe. - Temperatures come back down closer to normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Rain chances ramp up late Wednesday/early Thursday as the upper ridge is shunted and a surface trough drags through. Ensemble clusters differ on timing with introduction of precip as early as Wednesday night and others holding off until Thursday afternoon. Time-dependent, non-zero severe weather chances will arise from this feature pushing into a warm, moist airmass. Numerous machine learning outputs suggest an increased severe potential but with a lower probability broad brushed area likely owing to discrepancy in trough location and timing. Would obviously want an afternoon passage for the highest chance of severe weather, which some ensemble members do favor, but will have to wait to see better agreement until we can draw any more definitives. What is higher probability at this point is that temperatures will take a tumble back down closer to normal as heights fall and a more zonal flow pattern establishes in the mid-levels. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering valley fog, generally not impacting terminals, is expected to largely dissipate by 13Z or so. A high-confidence VFR forecast continues through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains in control. Diurnal heating/mixing may foster a few to locally scattered cumulus Sunday afternoon while generating NW wind gusts between 15 to 25kts. High clouds/cirrus coverage will be more tethered to the presence of lofted smoke transported in from Canadian wildfires. While the sky may have a hazy appearance, visibility impacts at the surface are not expected. Outlook... High pressure and ridge building near the region is very likely to maintain VFR through Wednesday, with surface wind generally light until Wednesday afternoon (breezy SW wind as the surface high shifts). The next potential impact period will be late week when shower and thunderstorm chances increases (and restrictions mainly tied to convection) as a series of shortwaves cross over the ridge axis. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB/CL SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...CL |