LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 37.4 F / 3 C Wind Chill 33 F / 1 C Dew Point 37.4 F / 3 C Humidity 100% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction WSW 240 Degrees Visibility 7 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 2000 feet Current Weather Barometer 30.04 Inches Issued At 01/07/2026 23:56 $$ |
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FXUS61 KPBZ 080204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 904 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expect fog early Thursday with clearing conditions in eastern Ohio. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers arrive on Friday with a potential for thunderstorms, some could be strong. - Winds increase for the lowlands and the ridges on Sunday with Wind Advisory potential in E. Tucker County. - Snow showers return for Sunday and Monday with some minor accumulation possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers arrive on Friday with a potential for thunderstorms, some could be strong. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday will feature an exiting trough and an end to the lingering precip across the area. However, the cloud cover will remain, although with some breakup on Thu but increasing in coverage again on Friday. The trough will shift into the central Plains by Friday with an extended cold front south. The increased advection will cause temperatures to soar into the low 60s on Friday with a potential of thunderstorms at least into Friday night and a potential of some on Saturday. At this time, the ensembles are giving a low probability of thunder with less than 10% on Friday and around 15% on Saturday. There are plenty of uncertainties on Friday and Saturday but the wind potential and the uncertainty will make this period one to watch for. KEY MESSAGE 2...Winds increase for the lowlands and the ridges on Sunday with Wind Advisory potential in E. Tucker County. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The main concern for the Saturday night and into Sunday period will be the potential for higher wind gusts. As mentioned in the changes above, their is a strong uptick in gusty wind potential as the ensembles have been trending faster with time. As the main jet arrives on Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, the probability of exceeding 45 mph in Eastern Tucker county is over 90%, with a modest 55% on the PA/WV ridges. Thus, have mentioned this in the HWO given the moderate to strong confidence. The lowlands during the day on Sunday indicate a low confidence of even reaching Advisory criteria, even with the 75th percentile, which is not out of the range of possibility, only a few locations just barely scrape the 46 mph mark. Thankfully, there'splenty of time to analyze before committing to a headline potential. KEY MESSAGE 3...Snow showers return for Sunday with some minor accumulation possible. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... By the period on Sunday, after the passage of the cold front, cold air advection will begin in earnest with the change over to snow showers by 12Z Sunday and continuing through Monday at 12Z. While there is low confidence of accumulation amounts, the NBM is showing around a 30% probability of exceeding an inch and the ridges to the south have about a 15% to 20% prob. There is some statistics of the NBM showing roughly 0.10 across the area and with a higher ratio due to the cold, there could be a potential for the north or the ridges to reach advisory criteria. As well, there is some surface instability of 15 to 40 J/Kg during the day on Sunday. This means there could be a snow squall potential to be concerned about. Stay tuned as the weekend arrives as it seems plenty of potential for hazardous weather is present. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - General improvements through the period, with VFR likely by Thursday afternoon. ------------------------------------------------------------ An overcast and mostly MVFR deck is draped across the area with lower cigs at FKL and DUJ. This deck is expected to progress north overnight, clearing ports to VFR as early at 04Z at MGW and as late as 18Z at DUJ as the deck slowly moves out. The exact timing to clearing of low decks is slightly uncertain. In areas that do clear, fog will be possible overnight with radiative cooling and melting snow in radiational cooling. This is more likely for southern ports, but with general saturation, it could not be ruled out at any port. Winds are expected to veer from westerly early tonight, to southerly late tonight, eventually settling on southeasterly ahead of the next disturbance tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally expected to remain light, before accelerating overnight, potentially resulting in localized wind shear. Outlook... Shear may persist through early Friday with increasing chances of MVFR/IFR throughout the day along with rain showers. Snow shower chances return Sunday into Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan/Shallenberger AVIATION...Milcarek |