LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 35.6 F / 2 C Wind Chill 29 F / -1 C Dew Point 21.2 F / -6 C Humidity 56% Wind Speed 9.2 Gust to 20.7 Wind Direction NW 310 Degrees Varying 270 to 350 Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 4400 feet Current Weather Barometer 29.95 Inches Issued At 11/17/2025 10:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 171622 SWODY1 SPC AC 171621 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail may occur across parts of Missouri and western Illinois late tonight. ...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Rockies will continue eastward across the central Plains, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will support continued low-level moisture advection, with low 60s dewpoints likely reaching far southeast KS/far southwest MO by early tomorrow morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will likely cover much of eastern OK and western AR. The stronger large-scale ascent will remain displaced west and north of the better low-level moisture, and strong convective inhibition will preclude surface-based storms throughout the period. However, persistent theta-e advection throughout the warm conveyor will promote elevated buoyancy and the potential for multiple rounds of elevated thunderstorms from the Ozarks northeastward into the Mid MS Valley. The initial round of deeper convection is expected across the central MO vicinity this afternoon near the terminus of a 35-40 kt low-level jet. Buoyancy will remain modest, but there is enough shear within the cloud-bearing layer for updraft rotation and the production of isolated hail. Continued warm-air advection will result in further low-level warming and moistening, increasing the elevated buoyancy tonight. This buoyancy coupled with glancing large-scale ascent and a strengthening low-level jet could result in additional thunderstorms farther south and west into southwest MO, as well as increased coverage and intensity of any ongoing thunderstorms from central MO into far west-central IL. Moderate to strong vertical shear will continue to support rotation within any deep and persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. ...CA into the Southwest... Upper low currently off the northern CA coast will continue southward throughout the day, ending the period over the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara/Ventura county vicinity. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible near this upper low, where cold mid-level temperature and strong forcing for ascent are anticipated. A non-lightning-producing band will move through the southern CA coastal counties ahead of this low. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible farther east within the warm conveyor over the Lower CO River Valley and western AZ. Meager instability should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms across the entire region. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 11/17/2025 $$ |