LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 80.6 F / 27 C Heat Index 80.1 F / 27 C Dew Point 51.8 F / 11 C Humidity 37% Wind Speed 0 Wind Direction N 0 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions scattered at 7000 feet Current Weather Barometer 30.19 Inches Issued At 09/16/2025 15:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 162001 SWODY1 SPC AC 162000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. $$ |