LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 60.8 F / 16 C Dew Point 53.6 F / 12 C Humidity 77% Wind Speed 3.5 Wind Direction E 90 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions Clear Current Weather Barometer 30.25 Inches Issued At 09/16/2025 02:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NE/CO/KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...NE/KS/CO... An elongated, positive-tilt shortwave trough will effectively drift eastward, pivoting across WY, as multiple embedded impulses rotate through it during the period. A confined belt of moderate flow should be centered from the eastern Great Basin to western SD this afternoon. Much of this will lag to the west of the large buoyancy plume from the NE/KS/CO border area northeast to the Upper Midwest. Isolated elevated storms may increase/intensify towards midday across the NE Panhandle. Scattered to eventually widespread surface-based storms are expected through the afternoon, both along the diurnally sharpening front and in the post-frontal environment emanating off the CO Rockies/Front Range. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of large hail. But the modest deep-layer shear along the front and early upscale growth to linear clusters should modulate hail magnitudes. Linear clustering appears most probable over southwest NE, which should support a short-duration uptick in severe wind potential. While most guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet into early/mid evening, the lack of stronger mid/upper-level winds should foster a waning severe threat after dusk. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Mid-level flow will be weak across most of the Upper Midwest, except across northeast MN. This area will remain on the peripheral influence of multiple shortwave impulses over south-central Canada. Low-level convergence should be weak until early evening, with convective coverage appearing isolated northeast of eastern SD. Still, the lobe of steep lapse rates emanating northeast from the central High Plains will support a swath of moderate to large MLCAPE. Any sustained storms along the weak front should pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward towards the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement to its northwest will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection near the cyclone core. However, the airmass over land should remain thermodynamically limited. Surface winds shifting from the north to northeast will be necessary for the advection of near-70 F surface dew points, supportive of meager surface-based instability. This may only glance the coast later this morning into early afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 $$ |