LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 32 F / 0 C Wind Chill 26 F / -2 C Dew Point 24.8 F / -4 C Humidity 75% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction SSW 200 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 8500 feet Current Weather Barometer .00 Inches Issued At 11/18/2025 09:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 181631 SWODY1 SPC AC 181630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... Clusters and northeast/southwest-oriented bands of elevated thunderstorms persist at late morning either side of the Ohio River, spanning southeast Indiana into northern/western Kentucky including near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This convection will result in some additional net south/southwestward forecast focus of the warm sector later today, even while fairly aggressive warm-sector moistening is occurring across the Ozarks as surface dewpoints climb through the lower/some middle 60s F. A shortwave trough/moderately strong jetlet over Iowa and northern Missouri this morning will continue to gradually minor/open while moving east-southeastward toward the middle Ohio Valley by tonight. Given the trend of this system, the related surface low will gradually weaken while air mass modification/convective recovery occurs with a northeastward-expanding warm sector toward the lower Ohio Valley. Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection to occur this afternoon across far southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky, although some of these developmental/environmental details depend on the disposition of still-recurring convection near/south of the Ohio River. There is still some sub-regional uncertainty with how far north the surface warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may be muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak to locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will generally overlap across the aforementioned region this afternoon and evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves overhead. Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe hail along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection possible north of the warm front into south-central Illinois/southern Indiana. Some threat for a tornado or two may also exist if sufficient boundary-layer instability can advance far enough northward in tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear to support surface-based thunderstorms. A narrow zone centered on far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will continue to be closely monitored and reevaluated for an upgrade (20z D1 update) should confidence in surface-based storms increase near the surface low/warm front late this afternoon and early evening. ...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona... A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern California will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale ascent associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should encourage additional convective development today across parts of the lower Colorado River Valley and Arizona. While deep-layer shear appears adequate for organized updrafts, weak instability will likely limit the overall severe threat across this region, although small hail/gusty winds a few stronger storms could occur this afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 11/18/2025 $$ |