LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 32 F / 0 C Wind Chill 26 F / -2 C Dew Point 24.8 F / -4 C Humidity 75% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction SSW 200 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 8500 feet Current Weather Barometer .00 Inches Issued At 11/18/2025 09:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 210602 SWODY1 SPC AC 210600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MS/AL/TN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern Alabama. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deamplify and move quickly eastward from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley later today into tonight. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface low will move eastward from southern MO to near the TN/KY border, along a diffuse surface boundary. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone will move southeastward off the coast of southern CA. ...Parts of the Southeast/TN Valley... A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of MS/AL/TN. While modest instability will tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat, relatively favorable wind profiles atop seasonably rich low-level moisture could result in a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind. Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will spread northward across parts of MS/AL/TN later today, in response to the shortwave trough and weak surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. Morning convection and remnant cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain weak. However, weak capping will allow for scattered diurnal storm development from southern/central MS into western AL. While stronger mid/upper-level flow and large-scale ascent will be displaced to the north, moderate deep-layer shear and modest low-level veering of the wind profile could support at least transient storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther north into northern MS/AL and parts of TN/far southern KY, guidance depicts renewed storm development during the evening into late tonight, aided by the glancing influence of the departing shortwave trough. Deep-layer flow will remain rather strong across this region, so an isolated severe threat could evolve if sufficient recovery and destabilization can occur. If organized convection can be sustained within this regime, then a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind could develop later tonight. ...Middle/upper TX Gulf Coast... Isolated to scattered storms will likely be ongoing later this morning across the TX coastal plain, with some redevelopment possible later this afternoon or evening along a cold front. While deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for storm organization, weakening large-scale ascent and warming temperatures aloft are currently expected to limit severe potential. If any organized convection can persist from overnight, and/or if substantial destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front during the afternoon, then a few strong storms will be possible. ...Southern California... Isolated storms will be possible across parts of the Southwest, in association with the mid/upper-level cyclone. The strongest instability will remain near and offshore of the southern CA coast, and low-level flow is expected to generally be weak, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially early in the day. ..Dean.. 11/21/2025 $$ |