LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 32 F / 0 C Wind Chill 26 F / -2 C Dew Point 24.8 F / -4 C Humidity 75% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction SSW 200 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 8500 feet Current Weather Barometer .00 Inches Issued At 11/18/2025 09:56 $$ |
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ACUS01 KWNS 190557 SWODY1 SPC AC 190555 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak lee troughing will become established across the southern/central High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central OK/AR during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks... A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the details is low at this time. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the region. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear. A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this regime. ...Southeast AZ into southwest NM... Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating, which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could result in some severe potential. ..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025 $$ |