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LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
Franklin, Venango Regional Airport

Temperature       0 F / 0 C
Wind Chill        0 F / 0 C
Dew Point         0 F / 0 C
Humidity          0%
Wind Speed        9.2
Wind Direction    NW 320 Degrees Varying 290 to 10
Visibility        10 Miles
Sky Conditions     few at 3800 feet
Current Weather
Barometer         30.07 Inches
Issued At         07/25/2025 16:56

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Untitled Document
ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the
Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across
the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the
next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent
upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the
Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into
the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place
across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a
low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will
propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating.
This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern
Plains.

...Eastern North Dakota...
Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND
and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak
surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will
impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it
moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse
rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture
should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot
mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for
organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells
capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with
southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat.
Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas
overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High
Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS
and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period,
this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions
vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal
cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the
EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher
risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as
forecast uncertainty become resolved.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains...
An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is
forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern
Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm
development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY
and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late
afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume
will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may
support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across
MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit
storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles
will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds.

...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will
promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest
at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds
casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization,
but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely
support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late
afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can
destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by
mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great
Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will
support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which
in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a
mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of
damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail.

Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the
central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak
mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support
widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping.
Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will
provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters
with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 07/25/2025

$$